MLB Baseball Betting: Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays

MLB Baseball Betting:  Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays&h=235&w=320&zc=1

At this point, it’s apparent that the Toronto Blue Jays are playing for the wild card. They’re 5.5 games out of first place (pending the outcome of Monday’s game against the Yankees) with only 6 games to play. Toronto has been playing well, winning 7 of 10 but there’s a big problem–the first place Boston Red Sox aren’t losing games. The Red Sox were idle on Monday but will start play on Tuesday having won 11 straight games. The Jays do have their fate in their own hands relative to the wild card spots and this series is crucial. Toronto holds the top wild card spot with a 1.5 game lead over the Baltimore Orioles, who have the second spot. The Detroit Tigers are 1.5 games behind Baltimore, Seattle is 2.5 games back and Houston is 3 games back.

The Orioles enter this series having split their last 10 games including 3 straight. Baltimore will start right hander Kevin Gausman and he’s been decidedly mediocre this season. Overall, he’s got a 3.57 ERA with a 1.274 WHIP and a 4.36 ERA with a 1.421 WHIP on the raod. He’s got a 3.54 ERA in his last three starts with a 1.230 WHIP. Baltimore is 13-15 overall when Gausman starts but just 5-11 on the road and 1-2 in his last three.

Toronto will counter with right hander Aaron Sanchez who has played fairly well this season but has an ugly last 3 stat line that is somewhat misleading. For the year, Sanchez has a 3.17 ERA with a 1.190 WHIP and a 3.93 ERA with a 1.282 WHIP at home. His L3 ERA is 5.40 with a 1.380 WHIP but that’s based on one horrible start against Boston on 9/11 when he allowed 6 earned runs in 3 2/3 innings of work. In the other two starts in this sequence he went 13 innings allowing 9 hits and 4 earned runs.

Both teams hit right handed pitching very well. Toronto averages 5.0 runs per game against right handers while Baltimore averages 4.8. The Blue Jays are 64-49 against right handed pitching while Baltimore is 63-48. The disparate valuations the respective teams get are evident in their profit/loss in this situation. The Blue Jays are dead even for the year while Baltimore is +13.4 units.

Baltimore is a weak road team (35-40) and the Blue Jays are in better form. For that reason, we’ll back Toronto.


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