MLB Baseball Betting: Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays

MLB Baseball Betting:  Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays&h=235&w=320&zc=1

These are trying times for Toronto baseball fans. It was just a week or so ago that everything looked good for the Blue Jays and their quest for the AL East title. They had won 2 of 3 games against the Orioles at Camden Yards to wrap up August. They’ve only won twice since losing 7 of 9. They dropped 2 of 3 at Tampa Bay, got swept by New York at Yankee Stadium and dropped 2 of 3 to the Boston Red Sox at the Rogers Centre over the weekend. The Jays’ weaknesses have been well known this year–most notably their over-reliance on the long ball. Boston was the perfect team to exploit the team’s liabilities. The Blue Jays’ ‘go to move’ this year has been their offensive output against right handed pitching. The problem in the Red Sox series was simple–Boston hits RHP better than the Blue Jays. After the weekend’s action the Red Sox are in first place two games up on Toronto and Baltimore with the NY Yankees just 4 games out.

In theory, Tampa Bay is the perfect team to visit the Rogers Centre at the perfect time for the Blue Jays. The Rays are 60-82 for the season and mired in last place 18 games behind the second place Jays. Toronto is 28-52 -25.8 units against teams with winning records. On paper, this looks like a great matchup for Toronto but they’ve barely been able to stay above the ‘Mendoza Line’ against sub .500 opponents. The Jays are 28-24 -6.5 units against opponents with losing records YTD and 13-10 -3.4 units against teams under .500 in the second half of the season. Tampa Bay specifically has made life difficult for Toronto not only this year but for the past several years. This season the Rays are 9-7 +3.6 over Toronto including a 4-2 +3.4 units record at the Rogers Centre. Over the last three years the Jays and Rays have split 54 games (27-27) giving Tampa a +0.3 unit profit. Toronto holds a narrow 13-12 edge at the Rogers Centre but that’s a loss of -1.4 units.

We’ve said this over and over during the Jays’ tailspin but Toronto desperately needs a win. Unfortunately, with nothing working right for Toronto that can’t be counted on. We’ll back the plucky visitors. There is some solace for Canada’s baseball fans–the NHL hockey season is just 30 days away.


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