MLB Baseball Betting: Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles

MLB Baseball Betting:  Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles&h=235&w=320&zc=1

Yesterday we talked about how maddening the Toronto Blue Jays have been this season. We can sound that same theme after a 5-3 loss to Baltimore on Tuesday. Boston also lost so a minimal amount of harm done in terms of the standings. The Jays are 2 games up on Boston, 3 games up on Baltimore and 7 games up on the New York Yankees who lead KC 4-2 in a rain delay at this writing. Toronto has won 6 of 10 and Baltimore has split their last ten games.

Toronto will start right hander Aaron Sanchez who hasn’t been especially sharp of late but has been solid all year long. For the year, Sanchez has a 3.05 ERA with a 1.164 WHIP, on the road his ERA improves to 2.80 with a 1.119 WHIP and in his last three balloons to 5.29 with a 1.353 WHIP. The Jays have won 15 of his 24 starts this season including 8 of 13 on the road and 2 of his last 3. Baltimore has done well against right hand starters this season with a record of 53-42 +8.9 units. They hit .268 against RHP and average 4.9 runs per game.

Baltimore will go with Yovani Gallardo who is coming off a horrible game against the New York Yankees. Overall, he’s got a 5.69 ERA with a 1.647 WHIP, a 3.69 ERA with a 1.513 WHIP at home and a 8.78 ERA with a 1.950 WHIP in his last three games. The Jays have split his 18 starts this season with a 5-2 record at home and an 0-3 record in his last 3. His L3 ERA is based almost exclusively on his miserable performance against the Yankees on 8/26 when he went just 1 1/3 innings allowing 7 earned runs. In the other two games in this stretch he pitched 13 innings allowing 6 earned runs. Not great but not miserable either.

Toronto has turned a small profit on the road this year (35-29 +1.6 units) but the Orioles have cleaned up at Camden Yards with a record of 53-25 +16.2 units. Simply put, they’re undervalued at home and although Sanchez’s YTD numbers are better than Gallardo’s the Jays have no business being a -150 favorite here. In fact, they’ve been a home dog in this price range only 3 times previously this year–once was yesterday–and are 2-1 +1.8 units in that spot.


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