MLB Baseball Betting: Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers

MLB Baseball Betting:  Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers&h=235&w=320&zc=1

The Toronto Blue Jays live and they definitely have a flair for the dramatic. Edwin Encarnacion hit a game winning home run in the 11th inning of Toronto’s wild card matchup against the Baltimore Orioles to send the Jays to the American League Divisional series against the Texas Rangers. The Rangers finished with the best record in the American League (95-67) but Toronto has been very competitive against Texas this season winning 4 of 7 overall though dropping 2 of 3 on the road. The winner of this series will advance to the AL Championship series against the winner of the Boston Red Sox/Cleveland Indians matchup.

Texas was a ‘license to print money’ for the betting public this season. That happens when a team goes into the year without much expected of them though it’s hard to understand why that is the case after winning the AL West last year after finishing in last place in the division in 2014. It’s not really clear why a team of this quality was so undervalued by the betting public but the numbers are there in black and white. Texas was +29.5 units overall, +18.6 units at home, +19.6 units against opponents with winning records and a whopping +32 unit profit when playing on a grass field.

It’ll be a battle of lefthanders in Game 1 as Toronto’s J.A. Happ will matchup against Texas’ Cole Hamels. Hamels stat line isn’t particularly impressive but the bottom line is that the Rangers won when he took the mound. He’s got a 3.32 ERA overall with a 4.40 ERA at home. Texas excelled when he took the mound, however, with a 24-8 record in his starts overall and a 12-3 record at home. He was one of the most profitable pitchers in baseball earning backers +14.7 units during the regular season leaving him a fraction behind the most profitable pitchers–Daniel Straily and Masahiro Tanaka who each had +14.8 unit seasons. Toronto’s Happ wasn’t far behind with a +12 unit season and a better statline across the board. Toronto won 24 of his 32 starts including 12 of 17 on the road.

This game looks like a ‘coin flip’. Texas is better against left handed pitching and Toronto has a way of turning in a disappointing performance off a big win but in terms of valuation the Jays are the play.


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