MLB Baseball Betting: Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays

MLB Baseball Betting:  Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays&h=235&w=320&zc=1

Daytime baseball at the Rogers Centre on Saturday as the Baltimore Orioles head North of the border to take on the Toronto Blue Jays. Both teams are currently in the thick of things in the AL East with Toronto two games back of the division leading Tampa Bay Rays and the O’s four games back. Toronto is in decidedly better form–in fact they’re arguably the hottest team in baseball. They recently had an eleven game winning streak ended but are still 14-3 in the month of June. They’ve also been very strong at the Rogers Centre with a 23-12 +8 unit profit at home. The Orioles are 10-19 -7.8 units on the road but have played fairly well in June with a record of 11-7 +4.8 units.

Baltimore will start Kevin Gausman who comes from the bullpen to take his first starting assignment of the season. Gausman is a capable though not overly impressive reliever with a 4.50 ERA and a 1-0 record in twelve innings of work. Toronto will counter with veteran lefthander Mark Buehrle who has been solid at home where the Jays are 4-1 in his assignments. Buehrle has a 3.56 ERA at home but has been even better lately with a 1.77 in his last three assignments.

The pitching matchup isn’t quite as advantageous as you’d expect given Buehrle’s recent form. The O’s are decent against lefthanded pitching with a record of 8-7 +0.3 units. They’ve got a 4.6 runs per game average and a .269 ERA against lefthanders but that’s negated somewhat by a 3.5 runs per game and a .236 ERA on the road. The Blue Jays have won 7 of 10 head to head this season including all four meetings at home. Worth noting that Baltimore has yet to win a game on artificial surfaces this season–they’re 0-4 -4.2 units after Friday night’s setback.

Given the O’s struggles away from home (and on turf) Toronto looks like a reasonably good value here as a short priced home favorite. It could be a function of the Orioles’ offensive output against lefthanded pitchers but that’s only one small component of this matchup. Toronto is the hotter team, playing at home with a significant edge in their starting pitching. We’ll lay the price with the Jays.


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