MLB Baseball Betting: Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles

MLB Baseball Betting:  Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles&h=235&w=320&zc=1

We’re not telling the baseball fans of Canada anything they don’t know here but Toronto has been an incredibly frustrating team this season. But so far so good in late August as the Jays have won 8 of 12 and have opened up a 2 game lead over the second place Boston Red Sox and a 4 game lead over the Baltimore Orioles. Toronto opened this series on Monday night with a 5-1 victory over Baltimore which was all the more impressive as the Jays had struggled somewhat against LHP this season (though Wade Miley isn’t exactly Sandy Koufax). Now they’ll try to increase their lead with their best pitcher statistically on the mound. Baltimore has been ‘treading water’ in recent weeks and with the Jays playing good baseball that’s not going to get it done.

Toronto will start lefthander J.A. Happ in this game and although he had his 11 game winning streak broken by the LA Angels last time out he’s been exceptional this year. Overall Happ has a 3.19 ERA with a 1.146 WHIP, a 3.32 road ERA with a 1.080 WHIP and a 3.93 L3 ERA with a 1.146 WHIP. The best thing about Happ this year is that the Jays know that they can hand the ball to him every fourth day and he’ll give them a chance to win. Overall, Toronto is 19-6 +10.4 units when he starts, 8-4 +3 units on the road and are 2-1 -0.5 units in his last three starts. Baltimore has been mediocre at best against left handed pitching this season with a record of 18-18 +0.3 units averaging 4.3 runs per game and hitting .244.

Baltimore will start right hander Ubaldo Jimenez who is having a strange year. His numbers don’t look good at all and Baltimore’s overall record in his starts is 8-11 -3.4 units. What’s strange is that he’s 7-3 +3.9 units at home and 1-8 on the road. The O’s have also lost his last 3 starts, two of which were on the road. His L3 ERA is misleading–he got the hook on 7/8 after 1.3 innings at home against the LA Angels after allowing 5 runs. He started on 7/28 and 8/25 pitching a combined 11 innings allowing 2 ER, 10 hits, striking out 12 and walking 3.

Jimenez is a freak and his misleading recent form gives us a good price on the home team.


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