MLB Baseball Betting: Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox

A Blue Jays’ loss on Thursday sets up a very dramatic weekend series for the four teams remaining in wild card contention. The Jays are now tied with the Baltimore Orioles for the two AL Wild Card berths, the Detroit Tigers are 1.5 games back after a postponement in their Thursday game against Cleveland. The Seattle Mariners are 2.5 games back pending the outcome of their game against the Oakland A’s. The O’s have won the first two games of this series to erase Toronto’s 1.5 game hold on the top wild card spot. Depending on how things work out for the Tigers and Mariners this weekend could see both the Jays and Orioles make it sending three AL East teams to the playoffs.

In theory, this is a brutal series for the Jays to finish the season but it might work out in their favor after all. Boston had won 11 straight games but have dropped three straight. The important thing, however, is that they backed into the divisional title with Toronto’s loss on Wednesday. That leaves them with questionable motivation for this series and definitely less urgency for the Red Sox than for the visiting Blue Jays. The Red Sox will start right hander Rick Porcello who has been excellent this year and particularly in his starts at Fenway Park. Porcello has a 3.11 ERA overall with a 0.991 WHIP but a 2.88 ERA and a 0.990 WHIP at home. Most significantly, the Red Sox have won 14 of Porcello’s 15 starts at home for a +12.5 unit profit.

Marco Estrada gets the start for Toronto and he’s got a 3.53 ERA with a 1.117 WHIP overall, a 3.48 road ERA with a 1.016 WHIP and a L3 ERA of 2.33 with a 0.879 WHIP. Toronto has gone 15-13 overall in his starts with a record of 8-5 on the road and 2-1 in his last three starts. This has been a very closely contested series this year with the teams splitting 16 games overall which includes Toronto winning 4 of 7 at Fenway. Both teams hit RHP well but against what could be a questionably motivated Red Sox teams we’ll take the Toronto Blue Jays getting plus money.

BET TORONTO BLUE JAYS +130 OVER BOSTON RED SOX